Phylodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 spread in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, highlights how metropolitan areas act as dispersal hubs for new variants. (preprint)

During the first semester of 2021, all of Brazil has suffered an intense wave of COVID-19 associated with the Gamma variant. In July, the first cases of Delta variant were detected in the state of Rio de Janeiro. In this work, we have employed phylodynamic methods to analyze more than 1,600 genomic sequences of Delta variant collected until September in Rio de Janeiro to reconstruct how this variant has surpassed Gamma and dispersed throughout the state. After the introduction of Delta, it has initially spread mostly in the homonymous city of Rio de Janeiro, the most populous of the state. In a second stage, dispersal occurred to mid- and long-range cities, which acted as new close-range hubs for spread. We observed that the substitution of Gamma by Delta was possibly caused by its higher viral load, a proxy for transmissibility. This variant turnover prompted a new surge in cases, but with lower lethality than was observed during the peak caused by Gamma. We reason that high vaccination rates in the state of Rio de Janeiro were possibly what prevented a higher number of deaths. Impact statementUnderstanding how SARS-CoV-2 spreads is vital to propose efficient containment strategies, especially when under the perspective of new variants emerging in the next year. Still, models of SARS-CoV-2 dispersal are still largely based in large cities from high-income countries, resulting in an incomplete view of the possible scenarios consequent of a new variant introduction. The work improves this discussion by reconstructing the spatio-temporal dispersal of Delta variant since its introduction in Rio de Janeiro, a densely populated region in South America. We also analyzed the epidemiological outcome of this spread, with a decrease in lethality rate uncommon to the observed in other countries. Data summaryFour supplementary figures, one supplementary table and one supplementary file are available with the online version of this article. Raw short reads of the newly sequenced genomes are available at SRA-NCBI database (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sra) under the BioProject PRJNA774631 and the assembled genomes are deposited at GISAID database (https://www.gisaid.org/) under the accession numbers listed in Table S1. Other genomic sequences used in the analyses are listed in Table S2. Epidemiological data for the state of Rio de Janeiro was obtained from https://www.saude.rj.gov.br/informacao-sus/dados-sus/2020/11/covid-19.

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 tracks early interstate transmission of P.1 lineage and diversification within P.2 clade in Brazil (preprint)

The sharp increase of COVID-19 cases in late 2020 has made Brazil the new epicenter of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages P.1 and P.2, first identified respectively in Manaus and Rio de Janeiro, have been associated with potentially higher transmission rates and antibody neutralization escape. In this study, we performed a whole-genome sequencing of 185 samples isolated from three out of the five Brazilian regions, including Amazonas (North region), Rio Grande do Norte, Paraiba and Bahia (Northeast region), and Rio de Janeiro (Southeast region) aiming to identify SARS-CoV-2 mutations that could be involved in the surge of COVID19 cases in Brazil. Here, we showed a widespread dispersion of P.1 and P.2 across Brazilian regions. Except for Manaus, P.2 was the predominant lineage identified country-wise. P.2 lineage was estimated to have originated in February, 2020 and has diverged into new clades. Interstate transmission of P.2 was detected since March, but reached its peak in December, 2020 and January, 2021. Transmission of P.1 was also high in December. P.1 origin was inferred to have happened in August 2020. We also confirmed the presence of the variant under investigation (VUI) NP13L recently described in the southernmost region of Brazil to have spread across the Northeastern states. P.1, P.2 and NP13L are descended from the ancient B.1.1.28 strain, although during the first phase of the pandemic in Brazil presence of B.1.1.33 strain was also reported. Here, for the first time, we investigate the possible occurrence of a new variant of concern descending from B.1.1.33 that also carries the E484K mutation. Indeed, the recurrent report of many novel SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants in Brazil could be due to the absence of effective control measures resulting in high SARS-CoV2 transmission rates. Altogether, our findings provided a landscape of the critical state of SARS-CoV-2 across Brazil and confirm the need to sustain continuous sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 isolates worldwide in order to early identify novel variants of concern and to monitor for vaccine effectiveness.

Pervasive transmission of E484K and emergence of VUI-NP13L with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 co-infection events by two different lineages in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil (preprint)

Emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages are under the spotlight of the media, scientific community and governments. Recent reports of novel variants in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil (B.1.1.28-E484K) have raised intense interest because of a possible higher transmission rate or resistance to the novel vaccines. Nevertheless, the spread of B.1.1.28 (E484K) and other variants in Brazil is still unknown. In this work, we investigated the population structure and genomic complexity of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio Grande do Sul, the southernmost state in Brazil. Most samples sequenced belonged to the B.1.1.28 (E484K) lineage, demonstrating its widespread dispersion. We were the first to identify two independent events of co-infection caused by the occurrence of B.1.1.28 (E484K) with either B.1.1.248 or B.1.91 lineages. Also, clustering analysis revealed the occurrence of a novel cluster of samples circulating in the state (named VUI-NP13L) characterized by 12 lineage-defining mutations. In light of the evidence for E484K dispersion, co-infection and emergence of VUI-NP13L in Rio Grande do Sul, we reaffirm the importance of establishing strict and effective social distancing measures to counter the spread of potentially more hazardous SARS-CoV-2 strains. HighlightsO_LIThe novel variant B.1.1.28 (E484K) previously described in Rio de Janeiro is currently spread across the southernmost state of Brazil; C_LIO_LIThe novel variant VUI-NP13L was also identified by causing a local outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul; C_LIO_LIB.1.1.28 (E484K) is able to establish successful coinfection events co-occurring simultaneously with different lineages of SARS-CoV-2. C_LI